Disclaimer
Here are some of my predictions for 2026. As before for 2025, there is nothing scientific or statistical about any of them. These are just my opinion, so feel free to disagree with them. I should also point out that these are things that interest or concern me.
Also, as before, some of you may not like the way I phrase things. But then again I have never been know for being politically correct. So, as before, be forewarned, and go elsewhere if you are the easily offended type.
Looking back at 2025
I predicted it would not be the year of the Linux desktop, and it wasn’t. Depending on your source data, the Linux Desktop hit around four to six percent. I had listed seven to eight percent as possibility.
I also predicted that Windows 11 would dominate the market by the end of 2025. It has passed Windows 10, so it holds the most market share. But it did not do as well as I predicted overall.
I also thought that Trumps home front agenda would be stalled by republicans. To a certain extent in the early part of the year, it was. However I think that the inflation rate decreasing in the summer got a lot of poeple on board as they look forward to the 2026 election cycle starting.
I was correct about environmental activists continuing to go down the wrong road. part of it is political grand standing, and part of it is their mind set.
I was correct about the power grid and rolling blackouts, but the main culprit was management and not electric vehicles. Guess I should have seen that coming, management blames everyone but themselves and the situation only gets worse.
On to 2026
Prediction #1: No, 2026 is not going to be the year of the Linux Desktop.
I want to specify Desktops as Linux already dominates in other markets, like servers. I do see Linux increasing its share to around 7 to 8% of the desktop market in 2026, with a very small outside chance of hitting 10%.
Some people point to Windows 11 as a driving force. However it did not happen with Millineum or Vista, so I don’t expect it to happen with 11. Most average computer users just want things to be simple and easy, and are not overly worried about being monitored by big tech.
That being said, I see a continuation of some governments and their agencies moving away from the propitiatory operating systems dominating the market, due to said privacy concerns. However the home market will remain firmly entrenched in Windows. Mainly because Microsoft has offered extended support for Windows 10 and most users will eventually shift to Windows 11, so they don’t really have any privacy concerns about sharing their data via a microsoft account.
Prediction #2: Manufacturing Jobs vs Automation and AI
I’ve heard a lot of talk here and there about investing in manufacturing in the US during this political cycle. Now I don’t, as a rule, talk politics here. And technically this is not really politics, but a reality check. Yes, I see some manufacturing coming back to the US in 2026, however I also see a lot of automation and AI coming with it as well.
Bottom line, I don’t expect to see a lot of high paying manufacturing jobs coming back. Remember business, regardless of any other factor, exists to be profitable, and will structure itself accordingly.
Manual labor is much cheaper elsewhere, making it a preferred method. Automation and AI will in most cases be the less expensive and more desirable option in the US. There will be jobs, because while AI and automation can do a lot, it can’t do everything. So don’t expect any manual repetitive assembly line jobs. Instead look to Quality Assurance and Maintenance types of jobs.
Prediction #3: Speaking of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
First, we don’t have any true actual AI yet. We will see what Generative AI provides, but large Language Models are generally not it. In the Mass Effect trilogy we were introduced to Virtual Intelligence or VI as opposed to AI. We are touching the VI stage now, actual AI is still a ways off.
Anyway I see the use of AI continuing to grow, I have noted a surprising amount of internet content is generated by AI now days. But there is another smaller trend I am seeing also. The big tech company AI models, like their operating systems are basically spyware. While I see growing reliance on AI, I also see a small but growing trend for local AI, that is not connected to big brother tech. I suspect by the end of 2026, most companies, again because of Big brother Tech spying, will move to Local AI models. Also Big Brother Tech trains varoius biases into their AI models, making them basically unusable for some applications.
Like Linux desktop it will be a small percentage of the market, but it is out there, getting easier to setup and use, and growing. So anyone with concerns about big tech brother spying, there will be options.
Prediction #4: Climate Change Activists Disaster Claims Wrong Again
This is an easy one. Anyone predicting, in regard to climate change, that we are going to reach a tipping point, a point of no return, or a disaster, will be proven wrong. This is easy because this has been happening since mid 1900’s. While I firmly believe climate change is real, so is politics, which is a very distorted lens to view things through.
Today climate predictions are all about hype, funding, and shutting down your opponent. In my life I have lived thought the various buzzwords; Nuclear Winter, Global Warming, and now Climate Change. But there are a few common threads the proponents never talk about, like how climate change has always existed since the earth had an atmosphere. And the claim that disaster is just around the corner.
So before I put much faith in the so called consensus of scientists, I want them to talk about natural climate change and what percentage of that is man made climate change. Otherwise we are not getting the whole story.
Remember, once upon a time there was a consensus that the earth was the center of the universe. One thing about consensus, especially in science, over time it is likely to be proven wrong.
Prediction #5: Whats Going on in the West Philippine See
The West Philippine Sea (so labled since the 1960’s) is an area, which depending on who you talk to, either borders or is part of the South China Sea. I predict the current situation in that area of the world will deteriorate during 2026. This area is of particular concern as I will be living close to it.
China will continue to try and bully the other countries and expand their influence. In 2026 I think there are going to be more incidents than there were in 2025. However I don’t think any of them are going to come off as being particularly good for China. And the end result of these incidents will be a build up of a US presence in the Philippines, and other areas, throughout 2026.
Conclusion
There are a lot of other subjects I have opinions about for 2026. But the above is what is currently of interest and/or concern to me at the current time in the third quarter of 2025.
These are based on some trends i see, as well as some guesswork and hope on my part. Nothing to be taken to seriously. Well maybe the West Philippine Sea one.
But for the most part this is just for fun. Please feel free to share your predictions, regardless of what they are based on, for 2026.